Let’s Rewind to Our Origins

Life first appeared from primordial conditions around four billion years ago. However, a critical turning point came 66 million years ago with an asteroid impact that blocked sunlight and cooled the Earth, leading to the extinction of 80% of animal species. This catastrophe ended the age of dinosaurs and ushered in the era of mammals.

Then, approximately 56 million years ago, climate dynamics shifted again. A rapid warming phase known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) created evolutionary pressures that led to the rise of primates.

Today’s levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases mirror those of five million years ago during the Pliocene, although the planet was significantly warmer, and sea levels were much higher.

Glacial advances 700,000 years ago reshaped the climate once more, compelling species with greater brain capacity to devise solutions to new environmental challenges.

For a deeper exploration of the evolutionary impacts of climate change, check out this insightful article from Sílvia PM, PhD.

What Triggered Past Climate Change Events?

The emergence of Homo sapiens occurred in Africa around 300,000 years ago. By 100,000 years ago, we were already exhibiting behaviors similar to today—gathering food, cooking, tool-making, and developing language. Even during the Last Glacial Maximum, which enveloped modern-day New York City just 21,000 years ago, our species had already established its presence.

The evolution of modern humans was facilitated by an asteroid impact, a prolonged cooling trend, and fluctuating climates that favored the survival of species with enhanced cognitive abilities. This led to population growth and a surplus that enabled the rise of civilization, resulting in significant advancements in areas such as science, technology, and the arts—alongside the human-driven climate crisis we face today.

As we look to the future, three key points stand out:

1. 2024 is the year of climate elections: An unprecedented 4 billion people will participate in national and regional elections across the globe, from the United States to Brazil, India, and Korea.
2. Last year was the hottest on record: Approaching the 1.5°C threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, it is imperative that we phase out fossil fuels to ensure a livable planet.
3. The power to influence evolution lies in our hands.

Elections That Will Define Climate Action

The year 2024 will witness elections like no other. Seven of the top ten carbon-emitting regions are set to hold elections, including the United States, India, and the European Union, together representing nearly half the global population and carbon emissions.

Other significant emitters like the United Kingdom and South Africa are also participating in elections.

The results of these elections will be crucial in determining whether we can redirect our course away from harmful climate changes.

While some may romanticize this as a triumph for democracy, challenges loom. Many candidates are right-wing populists opposing net-zero policies, stoking backlash against climate initiatives.

> “We must urgently counter these movements or we risk planetary destruction that is beyond comprehension,” warns US climate chief John Kerry. He highlights the troubling rise of “disinformation” and “demagoguery” that aim to delay action on fossil fuel use.

Argentina: A Glimpse of the Future

My recent experiences during Argentina's national elections on December 9, 2023, underscore this. The newly elected president, Javier Milei, is known for his far-reaching Omnibus Law, which seeks to revamp the Argentine economy by amending numerous regulations.

While it includes beneficial measures, such as barring convicted individuals from running for office and mandating educational reforms, it poses risks to environmental protections. The proposed changes could lead to deforestation, weakening laws that currently protect forests and glaciers, with potential devastating effects on biodiversity and indigenous cultures.

Fortunately, this law has yet to gain approval.

United States: Sustaining Progress

In August 2022, President Joe Biden secured a landmark climate spending package, committing nearly $1 trillion in investments for renewable energy and carbon reduction initiatives through 2032. This legislation has the potential to significantly reduce US emissions by 2035.

However, the threat of losing this momentum looms large. Donald Trump’s candidacy for a second presidential term could derail progress, with intentions to retract clean energy policies and withdraw from international agreements, pushing the planet closer to a tipping point.

Nonetheless, reversing the investments from the Inflation Reduction Act may prove challenging due to the economic advantages they provide, even in Republican districts.

Concerns about climate change will undoubtedly influence election campaigns both in the US and globally as billions prepare to vote.

India: A Silent Struggle

As the third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, India houses 1.4 billion people, yet climate change is not a central topic in upcoming elections. Both major parties have largely overlooked this critical issue.

Despite this, India has made strides by fulfilling some COP26 commitments, with wind and solar power capacity nearly doubling in the last five years.

Indonesia: Coal Dependency

Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter globally and is currently conducting presidential and legislative elections. However, 60% of its electricity comes from coal, and this dependence is likely to persist due to government support and established infrastructure.

As voters cast their ballots, the nation’s climate future hangs in the balance.

Russia: Climate on the Backburner

Putin's upcoming election is overshadowed by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The climate crisis is not a priority amid the turmoil caused by international sanctions and war, which may hinder any future climate action in Russia.

EU: A Rightward Shift

The European Union, often seen as a leader in climate action, has set ambitious targets for emissions reductions. However, upcoming elections could see a shift towards right-wing parties that may deprioritize climate initiatives, posing a threat to the EU’s environmental goals.

Predatory Capitalism and the Stakes Ahead

With so much on the line this election season, it is crucial for voters to be informed and aware. The rise of populist sentiments feeds into a reality where our existence relies on consumption and fossil fuel dependency.

Despite the urgency, climate change denial persists, with those profiting from fossil fuels misleading the public about the reality of the crisis.

Scientists assert that the solutions to the climate crisis exist, yet the political will to implement them often falls short.

History will evaluate our response to this challenge. My hope is that 2024 will be the year when politicians prioritize the needs of the people and the planet over profit.

We must abandon the outdated strategy of minimal change and instead confront the reality of our climate crisis head-on.

We inhabit a single planet, and our fates are interconnected.

Be heard.

Thank you for your careful reading and support! Special thanks to Tim Smedley for his invaluable feedback. Subscribe for immediate insights and join the 400+ Antarctic Sapiens community for weekly thought-provoking content.