We stand on the brink of a new era of lunar exploration, reminiscent of the historic Apollo 11 mission that first landed humans on the Moon fifty years ago. From 1969 to 1972, NASA successfully placed astronauts on the lunar surface during six out of seven attempts. Since then, no one has returned humans to the Moon, but this may soon change.

The original push to reach the Moon was fueled by Cold War tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union, each vying to claim lunar exploration supremacy. Today, the motivations for revisiting the Moon have shifted and evolved. We now recognize the Moon’s potential resources, such as water and helium-3—a non-radioactive isotope that could offer a sustainable energy source for Earth.

The European Space Agency (ESA) notes, “Unlike Earth, which is safeguarded by its magnetic field, the Moon has been subject to significant Helium-3 accumulation from solar winds. This isotope is believed to be a safer option for nuclear fusion reactors as it does not produce hazardous waste.”

As we expand our presence in the Solar System, the Moon serves as a crucial waystation for future planetary exploration, offering access to vital resources like water in the vast expanse of space.

Various nations and private companies are currently drafting their strategies to send astronauts to the Moon, each facing unique advantages and hurdles in this ambitious endeavor.

SPACEX

If Elon Musk can send a Tesla Roadster into space, why not aim for a lunar landing? Despite numerous challenges, Musk is prepared to take considerable risks in pursuit of his vision for space exploration.

In September 2018, billionaire Yusaku Maezawa revealed plans to journey around the Moon aboard a SpaceX-designed rocket. If realized, he would become the first space tourist to orbit our natural satellite, although he won't set foot on its surface. This mission echoes NASA's Apollo 8 flight in 1968, with SpaceX's endeavor scheduled for 2023.

The Starship vehicle, intended for lunar missions, will utilize a Super Heavy booster rocket alongside its second stage. Once in orbit, Starship will refuel before heading to the Moon or Mars.

SpaceX's primary asset in its lunar mission is Musk’s willingness to embrace substantial risks. However, this very trait also presents a significant disadvantage, as space exploration is inherently fraught with uncertainties.

CHANCE OF BEING NEXT TO THE MOON: 35%

CHINA

China marked its entry into human spaceflight in 2003, becoming the third nation to achieve this milestone. In early 2019, it successfully landed the Chang’e 4 mission on the Moon's far side.

With 39 orbital launches in 2018, China leads the globe in space activity. Their Chang’e 5 mission, set for 2020, aims to return lunar samples to Earth, marking the first such return since 1976.

Future missions, including Chang’e 6 and Chang’e 7, will further explore the Moon’s surface and polar regions, with aspirations of establishing long-term bases using 3D printing technology.

Experts suggest that a manned lunar mission could occur in the 2030s, propelled by China's long-term political commitment to its space program.

CHANCE OF BEING NEXT TO THE MOON: 30%

NASA

To date, only NASA has successfully landed humans on the Moon, giving it unparalleled experience in this arena. However, since the early 1970s, NASA has not sent astronauts beyond low-Earth orbit, focusing instead on projects like Skylab and the International Space Station.

A renewed directive aims to send humans back to the Moon by 2024, reinvigorating their lunar ambitions. However, the agency must navigate the challenges of ensuring safety while adhering to this tight timeline.

NASA's bureaucratic structure may hinder their efforts, as funding often depends on shifting political tides. The transition of power in the U.S. could further complicate plans to return to the Moon.

The Constellation program, which aimed for a Moon landing in 2020, faced significant delays and was ultimately canceled. The current administration has reignited NASA's focus on lunar exploration.

The Deep Space Gateway aims to facilitate Moon missions by serving as an orbital platform. Astronauts would launch to this station before descending to the Moon’s surface.

CHANCE OF BEING NEXT TO THE MOON: 25%

RUSSIA

Once a formidable contender in the space race, Russia has struggled financially since the Soviet era. The nation was the first to achieve numerous milestones in space exploration, including sending the first human into orbit.

Despite past successes, Russia's lunar ambitions have stagnated. However, in March 2019, the country initiated the SIRIUS project, simulating a lunar mission with volunteers over 120 days.

Plans for a lunar space station and crewed missions are in the pipeline, but progress has been slow.

CHANCE OF BEING NEXT TO THE MOON: 5%

INDIA

While India has yet to launch a crewed mission, it is an emerging player in space exploration. The Chandrayaan-1 mission in 2008 led to the discovery of water on the Moon.

Chandrayaan-2, with its orbiter, lander, and rover, aims to explore the lunar south pole for water. Although delays have hampered progress, India's technological capabilities are advancing.

While immediate crewed lunar missions are not on the agenda, India could surprise the world in the future.

CHANCE OF BEING NEXT ON THE MOON: 4%

SOMEONE ELSE:

There's always a possibility that an unexpected nation or private entity could achieve a lunar landing ahead of the established contenders. Surprises in space exploration are not uncommon; history has shown that anything can happen.

CHANCE OF BEING NEXT ON THE MOON: 1%